“Sinn Fein’s outrageous breakthrough shatters Irish two-party system”
On February 8th, General Elections were held in the small green island with a vote of nearly 4.8 million Irish citizens and where the big surprise was given by the party led by Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Fein).
The reason for this surprise is given by a series of unprecedented circumstances in the country’s political history, starting with the fact of Irish being forced to alter their weekend to go vote; the voting day took place on a Saturday, which is unusual, as in recent decades elections have usually taken place on a Thursday or Friday. Not only that, but the rugby match that pitted Ireland against Wales in the Six Nations Tournament and prevented by the storm Ciara that hit the island, the Irish went to the polls from early Saturday in numbers higher than other calls. They had been baptized as the elections of “change”, in which social inequality has weighed on the minds of the young generation, anxious to end a century of two-party politics.
As for the political context, Sinn Féin, considered for decades the “political wing” of the IRA terrorist organization, has burst onto the political scene in the Republic of Ireland. The exit poll carried out for the public television station RTÉ and The Irish Times, with a margin of error of 1.3%, offers a historic result. The two parties that have alternated in government in the last 100 years have lost their hegemony. First, Fine Gael (FG), currently in power, has obtained a total of 35 seats; is a centre-right liberal-conservative, pro-European and pro-United Ireland political party. It was founded on September 8, 1933. Together with Fianna Fáil, it is one of the main parties in Ireland. It has governed for 25 years and is currently led by Leo Varadkar. In second place, Finna Fáil (FF), its eternal rival, achieving a total of 38 seats, is a centrist party that has dominated Irish politics for the past 100 years. Sinn Féin, with a 37-seat support is, at this point, on exactly the same level.
This situation shows an unprecedented technical draw between the three parties. The Transferable Vote proportional system favours the parties that present the most candidates. The two main formations had presented more than 80 each throughout the country. Sinn Féin, the first to be surprised by the result, presented just over 40. If the poll data is confirmed, however, it will be able to rightfully claim a place at the table of negotiations that seem to be long and complicated. Both the FG and the FF have announced their categorical refusal to form a coalition with Sinn Féin if they win.
The current situation of the country is facing a complicated scenario. The two parties that have shared power for a century have spent the entire campaign ruthlessly attacking each other and have been lashing out at Sinn Féin in recent days when polls already indicated that “the political arm of the IRA” was on its way to a historic first position.
McDonald, leader of Sinn Fein, started her campaign with a promise to push for a referendum on unification in Ireland within five years. The leader of Sinn Fein has started adapting her speech, aware that the process will perhaps take longer, but without giving up her goal of making the Republican Party the “unifying force” of the two Irelands in the medium term.
Today, the Irish economy is recovering rapidly after the impact of the crisis of the last decade, but the middle class feels that the profits have been unfairly distributed. The two central issues of the campaign have been the cost of housing (along with the exorbitant price of rent in Dublin, which is home to a third of the country’s population) and the deterioration of public health.
With an ambitious programme (although described by experts as unrealistic), Sinn Féin has managed to present itself as the progressive alternative to a clearly declining two-party system. A new generation (mainly young people) has shown itself, in theory, willing to erase the party’s past, associated with terrorist violence.
PRESENT GOVERNMENT CONTACTS
What happens from now on nobody knows, but a great coalition between FF and FG seems unfeasible, due to their historical past, which would lead to the definitive collapse of the two-party system in Ireland. Both seek for new coalitions and make calculations looking for the sum of minor formations (Labour, Green, Social Democrats or the progressive coalition Solidarity-People before Benefits), in the hope that they will add up enough votes to try a multi-party government. Anything but having to sit down with Sinn Féin, whose past has been constantly recalled and whose policies have been presented as radical and harmful.
On the other hand, McDonald has announced the opening of talks with other political formations with the intention of negotiating the formation of a government and has specifically mentioned the Green Party, the Social Democratic Party and People Before Profit, three minority and left-wing ideologies.
“I have also said on other occasions that I will speak and listen to everyone. I think that’s what adults do and that’s what democracy demands,” McDonald said in a statement from the Royal Dublin Society headquarters in the Irish capital.
With these contacts she seeks to explore whether it would be possible to form a government, and, in that sense, she has reproached the leaders of the two traditional parties – Leo Varadkar of Fine Gael and Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil – for refusing to talk to Sinn Féin.
The rise of Sinn Fein was mainly due to the boost of the young vote, which perceives the violent past as something distant and considers the Republican Party as closer to the reality of the “new Ireland”.
McDonald admitted that she was surprised by the increase in support for Sinn Féin and that they should have put forward more candidates. “It’s a great statement of change. There is no longer a two-party system. People want a different kind of government,” she argued.
A DIFFICULT MARRIAGE
On the one hand, Fine Gael Party leader and outgoing Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has reiterated his rejection of any kind of agreement with Sinn Féin. “A forced marriage would not result in a good government,” he said, warning that it could take “several months” before a new government is formed.
On a possible agreement with the party that looks set to win the elections, he stressed that Fine Gael “is not compatible with Sinn Féin. “We have a willingness to dialogue with other parties to form a government and give this country a government that can spend the next five years dealing with the problems that we have had to face in recent years,” he said.
For the moment, Varadkar rules out talking to McDonald. “I understand that she has said that she seeks to form a leftist coalition that does not include Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. I don’t know if it’s possible by arithmetic, so it’s going to be several weeks before we’re in a position to form a government,” he concluded.
On the other hand, for his part the leader of Fianna Fáil, Micheál Martin, has expressed his willingness to negotiate a possible government with Sinn Féin or Fine Gael and has claimed to be a “democrat” who “listens to the people”.
In the campaign, Martin has ruled out any kind of understanding with McDonald’s or Varadkar. “I think we should let things cool down,” he told public broadcaster RTE. “We will evaluate the full count and the total number of seats,” he said, without ruling out possible coalitions.
As a condition for a possible agreement, he has avoided mentioning the “moral” problems with Sinn Féin raised in the campaign by the relationship between McDonald’s party and the Irish Republican Army (IRA) armed struggle in Northern Ireland and has instead focused on the possible government programme. “It must be coherent, sustainable and achievable,” he has riveted.
WHAT´S TO COME
Everything is therefore possible in the new panorama of Irish politics, which also faces the possibility of a “hung” Parliament and an ungovernable situation such as the one that forced the reconvening of elections in Spain in less than a year.
It remains to be added that Ireland ended up defeating Wales, 24 to 14 in the rugby game. A possible reminder that sometimes in politics, as in rugby, you can only go forward if the ball is passed backwards. Or conversely, as other people think, the following quote says: “Is not a mistake to make a mistake, but it’s a mistake to repeat the same mistake”.
Pablo Gonzales Rodriguez Tarduchy
Dublin Insight 